EUR/USD declined despite the US-EU trade deal. It hit an intraday low of 1.16434 and is currently trading around 1.16589. Overall trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.1780 holds.
While retaining 50% duties on steel and aluminum and leaving some items like alcoholic drinks, automobiles, and certain agricultural products under continuing discussion, the U. S. -EU agreement replaces the threatened 30% levy with a 15% tariff on most EU exports—including cars but excluding aircraft, particular chemicals, generic drugs, semiconductor machinery, and crucial raw materials. In return, the EU promises about $600 billion in fresh U. S. investments, $750 billion in American energy purchases (LNG, oil and nuclear), and more military equipment acquisitions, strengthening both economic and security relations. Seen as a political compromise preventing a larger trade war, the agreement promises dependability despite some industry reservations about the 15% rate. Its whole economic and strategic effect will depend on outstanding tariff lines and future dispute-resolution tools.
The pair is holding below the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 1-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.17065; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1745/1.1780/1.1800/1.1835/1.19090/1.1956/1.200. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1660; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1600/1.155/1.1500.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bearish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1678-80 with a stop-loss at 1.1730 for a target price of 1.1500.
