The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q4 provides some tentative signs that the region's recovery is becoming better balanced.
Although the quarterly expansion was confirmed at a sluggish 0.3%, the breakdown by expenditure is encouraging and suggests that the recovery is broadening out beyond the consumer sector.
In particular, investment rose by 0.4% in Q4 and the weakness of the previous few quarters was largely revised away.
And net trade also made a positive contribution to GDP, indicating that the depreciation of the euro in the second half of 2014 is starting to benefit exporters.
Capital Economics notes in a report to its clients on Friday:
- Looking ahead to 2015, there are reasons to expect that the euro-zone's economic recovery will continue to become better balanced.
- The further depreciation of the euro at the start of 2015 should boost exports while the improvement in bank lending may help investment.
- But given the weak labour market recovery and very slow growth in incomes, household spending growth looks set to slow.
- And the broader message from the business surveys is that the economic recovery is unlikely to gain momentum in the coming quarters. Overall, we maintain our expectation of only modest euro-zone GDP growth of around 1% this year and next.


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