Market Roundup
- Japan FinMin Aso: To mull AIIB entry alongside US.
- Japan PM Abe bids to end economic burden, Tokyo deserves more credit for its progress.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings +$68.1 mln to $3.228 trln March 25 week, Treasury holdings -$360 mln to $2.900 trln, agencies +$1.131 bln to $284.381 bln.
- NY Fed: Swaps with foreign CBs $3 mln March 25 week, all with BoJ.
- Japan Feb nationwide core CPI +2.0% y/y, Tokyo March core +2.2%, +2.1% and +2.2% consensus, Feb core ex-sales tax hike flat, first no-rise since May '13.
- Japan Feb household spending +0.8% m/m, -2.9% y/y, +0.5% and -3.2% consensus.
- Japan Feb retail sales -1.8% y/y, -1.5% consensus.
- Japan Feb unemployment 3.5%, jobs applicants ratio 1.15, as consensus, ratio best in almost 20 years, Jan 3.6%, 1.14
Economic Data Ahead
- (0345 EDT/0745 GMT) France Mar consumer confidence index, 93.0 consensus; previous 92.0.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) Sweden Feb retail sales, +0.3% m/m consensus; previous +1.2% m/m, +5.1% y/y.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Italy Jan industrial orders; previous +4.5% m/m, +5.8% y/y.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Italy Jan industrial sales; previous +1.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y.
- (0600 EDT/1000 GMT) Italy Jan retail sales; previous -0.2% m/m, +0.1% y/y.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Q4GDP - final, +2.4% AR consensus; prelim +2.2%.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Q4 PCE prices - final, core -0.4%, +1.1% consensus; prelim -0.4%, +1.1%.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Q4GDP deflator - final, +0.1% consensus; prelim +0.1%.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Mar U.Mich sentiment index - final, 92.0 consensus; prelim 91.2.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Buba debt conference in Frankfurt, various speakers incl FOMC Fischer.
- N/A Italy E7 bln 6-mo BOT, UK DMO GBP1/1.5/1.5 bln 1/3/6-mo bill auctions.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Austria FinMin Schelling at Vienna press event.
- (0515 EDT/0915 GMT) BoE DepGov Broadbent speech in London.
- (0600 EDT/1000 GMT ECB Noblet speech at Prishtina, Kosovo central bank event.
- (1010 EDT/1410 GMT) Greek FinMin Varoufakis speech in London.
- (1545 EDT/1945 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen speech at SF Fed conference.
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Yen strengthened in the mid Asian session and the pair trades at 119.13 levels, after hitting fresh session highs at 119.41 levels. Pair is likely to face resistance at 119.41 levels, above which gains could be extended to 119.85 levels. On the other hand, it might get support at 119 and then at 118.65 levels.
AUD/USD continued its move downward in Asia, hitting new four day lows below 0.7800 levels on falling China's industrial profits and iron-ore prices. On the topside, next resistance is located at 0.7834 levels, and a break above could push the pair to 0.7900 levels. On the downside, it is likely to find support at 0.7760 levels and a break below could extend the losses to 0.7700 levels.
NZD/USD trimmed overnight gains and slid lower in the mid-Asian trading, furthering its decline for fourth successive day, largely following AUD losses and broad US dollar strength. It currently trades at 0.7580 levels, having posted new session lows at 0.7567 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.7600 levels and then at 0.7693 levels. On the flipside, support may be found at 0.7551 levels and further below at 0.7520 levels.
EUR/USD fell to 1.0876 levels from 1.1052, unable to hold its move above the 1.1000 handle for a fourth time in the last two weeks. The pair faces major support at 1.0850 levels and resistance at 1.1000. EUR/JPY also ratcheted down from 131.10 to 129.55 yesterday. It was modestly bid in the Asian session between 129.55 to 129.85.
USD/CAD continued trading in thin 1.2458-1 .2542 range on Friday. A daily close below the 1.2381-2448 region (23.6% retrace of Jan27 low) will make the way for the 38.2 % level at 1.2208. On the other hand, a break above 1.2801 levels (Jan 30 high) would see the pair testing the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1.2968 levels.
