Market Roundup
• Swiss ZEW Expectations (Nov) 12.2, -7.7 previous
•Italian 6-Month BOT Auction 2.036% ,1.974% previous
•German 10-Year Bund Auction 2.670%,2.620% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•US Building Permits (Sep): 1.340M forecast, 1.330M previous
•US Building Permits (MoM) (Sep): -2.3% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,974K previous
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2% previous
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep): 0.5% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep): 1.9% forecast, 1.9% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% previous
•US Goods Trade Balance (Sep): -90.00B forecast, -85.50B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 226K forecast, 220K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 224.25K previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q3): 2.5% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep): 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ): -1.7% previous
•US Chicago PMI (Nov): 44.3 forecast, 43.8 previous
•US New Home Sales (Sep): 710K forecast, 800K previous
•US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep): 20.5% previous
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug): -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug): 1.4% previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.300M forecast, -3.426M previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday as euro drew support from upbeat investor sentiment globally as expectations for another U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December grew following soft economic data on Tuesday. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales in September rose less than expected, while producer prices were in line with estimates.U.S. consumer confidence also weakened in November as households grew more concerned about jobs and their financial outlook.The data releases followed a series of recent dovish comments from Fed policymakers.Traders now see an 83% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, compared to 30% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16818(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied against the dollar on Wednesday as cautious investors awaited what is expected to be a tax-heavy budget from British finance minister Rachel Reeves. She is widely expected to announce tens of billions of pounds in new tax measures, a move that will test her credibility with financial markets. Reeves has suggested the budget could help ease inflation, potentially opening the door for the Bank of England to cut rates. The BoE kept interest rates on hold in November after a narrow 5–4 vote, but markets are pricing in a return to rate cuts at next month’s meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar surged against the U.S. dollar after a stronger-than-expected inflation report reinforced expectations of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy stance. Australian consumer inflation accelerated for a fourth consecutive month in October, according to a new data series released on Wednesday, prompting markets to scale back hopes for further easing and even consider the possibility of a rate hike.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the monthly CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the fastest pace in 10 months and above the 3.6% forecast. The trimmed mean measure of core inflation also rose to 3.3% annually in October, up from 3.2% in September. Investors sharply reduced their expectations for the RBA to deliver a final rate cut in May next year, with odds dropping to just 8% from 40% previously. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as the Japanese yen weakened, despite reports that the Bank of Japan could consider an interest rate hike as early as next month. The yen has been under pressure amid growing concerns over Japan’s worsening fiscal situation, while traders remain alert to the possibility of intervention from Tokyo to curb the currency’s decline.On Sunday, Takuji Aida, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said that Tokyo is prepared to intervene proactively to counter the negative economic impact of a weak yen. Data released on Wednesday showed that a key indicator of Japan’s services sector prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in October, reflecting how labor shortages continue to push companies to pass on higher costs. Bank of Japan data also showed that the services producer price index, which measures the prices companies charge each other for services, rose 2.7% in October, slowing from a revised 3.1% increase in September.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.66(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Wednesday, supported by mounting expectations of U.S. rate cuts and signs of movement in Ukraine peace talks, while investors waited for the UK budget announcement.
At (GMT 13:25),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.39 %percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.38 %percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.47 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped more than 1% to a near two-week high on Wednesday after softer U.S. economic data strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, boosting demand for the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold was up 1% at $4,172.18 per ounce at 1208 GMT, its highest since November 14. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.7% at $4,168.70 per ounce.
Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after falling to a one-month low in the previous session, as investors weighed concerns over a potential supply glut alongside developments in talks over a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent crude futures gained 13 cents to $62.61 a barrel by 1135 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 19 cents at $58.14.
