Market Roundup
•New Zealand Exports (Oct) 6.50B, 5.78B previous
•New Zealand Imports (Oct) 8.04B, 7.17B previous
•New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct) -1,542M,-955M forecast,-1,384M
•New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct) -2,280M ,-2,390M previous
•Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Nov) 52.60, 52.10 previous
•Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.6,49.7 previous
•Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Nov) 52.7,52.5 previous
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Oct) 0.7% ,-0.1% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) 3.0%, 3.0% forecast,2.9% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Oct) 3.0%, 2.9% previous
•Japan National CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.4%, 0.1% previous
•Japan Adjusted Trade Balance 0.00T, -0.13T forecast,-0.30T previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.2% forecast 0.6% previous
•07:00 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 2.5% forecast ,2.3% previous
•07:00 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 15.20B forecast ,20.20B previous
•07:00 UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Oct) -10.862B previous
•07:00 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•07:00 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday as euro gained some ground ahead of key Eurozone PMI releases. Traders are awaiting preliminary November Purchasing Managers Index data from Germany and the broader Eurozone later in the day for further guidance on economic momentum.Meanwhile, the dollar was on track for its strongest week in over a month. A stronger greenback increases the cost of dollar-denominated gold for holders of other currencies. The latest U.S. Labor Department report, delayed by the federal government shutdown, showed September nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000more than double the forecasted 50,000—highlighting continued resilience in the U.S. labor market. Traders now see nearly a 39% chance for a Fed rate cut next month. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound extended its gains against the dollar on Friday as investors positioned ahead of Britain’s key economic releases, including retail sales and PMI data. The UK Retail Sales report for October is expected to hold steady at -0.2%, down from 0.6% previously, providing insight into household spending trends.Attention is also on the UK government’s Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26, which could influence economic expectations and guide the Bank of England’s next moves on monetary policy. Traders are closely monitoring these developments for signals on future market direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday as investors digested Australia’s manufacturing PMI data.Australia’s Flash Composite PMI climbed to 52.6 in November from 52.1 in October, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of expansion with stronger growth. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 from 49.7 and services activity accelerated to 52.7, driven by renewed goods orders and improved services new business, lifting overall new export business marginally despite a drop in goods exports.Looking Ahead, Australia’s October CPI is scheduled for November 26, followed by Q3 Capital Expenditure data on November 27 . The Aussie bounced 0.2% $0.6450, after sliding 0.6% overnight to hit a three-month low of $0.6434. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen on Friday as the yen gained on remarks from the Finance Minister about possible currency intervention.Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned on Friday that Japan could intervene in the currency market to address excessive volatility and speculative pressures on the yen.The comments mark a step up from policymakers, who until Thursday had expressed concern over one-sided, rapid yen movements and said they were monitoring the market with a high sense of urgency. Japanese policymakers have struggled with the weak yen, as it drives up import costs and raises household living expenses.Japan last intervened in the currency market in July 2024, after the yen dropped to a 38-year low near 161.96 per dollar, following warnings from authorities about taking “decisive action” before entering the market.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.56(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian equities dipped on Friday while currencies remained stable, as traders stayed cautious following U.S. jobs data that provided little guidance on the Fed’s policy outlook.
Hang Seng was down 1.74% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded down 3.71% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 2.33%
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Friday and was heading for a weekly fall, as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would refrain from cutting interest rates at its December meeting.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,052.58 per ounce, as of 0436 GMT. Bullion has dipped 0.7% this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged 0.2% lower to $4,050.30 per ounce.
Crude fell 1.5% on Friday, extending a three-day slide amid U.S. moves to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and lingering uncertainty over rate cuts dampening market sentiment.
Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.5%, to $62.45 a barrel by 0416 GMT, after slipping 0.2% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 1.7%, or 98 cents, at $58.02 a barrel, after ending Thursday down 0.5%.
