Market Roundup
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 1.1%, 1.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Mar) 1.2%, 1.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Mar) 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.0% previous
•Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
•Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%, 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
•US CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.5% previous
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.7%, 6.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•Canada Employment Change (Mar) 14.1K, 14.5K forecast, -83.9K previous
•Canada Part Time Employment Change (Mar) 15.2K, 24.5K previous
•Canada Full Employment Change (Mar) -1.1K, -108.4K previous
•Canada Avg hourly wages Permanent employee (Mar) 5.1%, 4.2% previous
•Canada Participation Rate (Mar) 64.9%, 64.9% previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Mar) -0.9%, 0.1% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Mar) 334.17, 333.51 previous
•US CPI Index n.s.a. (Mar) 330.21, 330.41 forecast, 326.79 previous
•US CPI Index s.a. (Mar) 330.29, 327.46 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•16:00 US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Mar)0.2% previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 411 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 548 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Friday as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and assess the latest US CPI report.US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, while Israel has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon’s government, raising hopes of de-escalation in the region. U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted, further diminishing chances for an interest rate cut this year. The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, the largest increase since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1741(Daily high)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed against the dollar on Friday as investors sold safe-haven assets on the assumption that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the Gulf . The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of safety as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices surging and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries pressured bonds. But since a fragile ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday, those positions are being unwound. Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in nearly four years in March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted. The increase was largely in line with expectations and the markets' direction is more likely to hinge on the outcome of weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3510(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3373(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3220(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday as investors hoped the worst of Middle East tensions had been avoided, though weekend peace talks continue to pose event risk. Iranian officials arrived in Islamabad on Thursday, while a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is set to arrive Friday for discussions aimed at peace.U.S. inflation data is due later in the day, but market direction is likely to depend more on the outcome of weekend U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad. Traders will also watch remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, due to speak in New York on Monday evening.Any guidance on inflation, policy outlook, or economic conditions could shape the next move in the AUD. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7094 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7167(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7061(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6982(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Friday as Japanese yen weakned as investors waited for outcome of weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad.US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, while Israel has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon’s government, raising hopes of de-escalation in the region. On the data front, U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted, further diminishing chances for an interest rate cut this year.The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, the largest increase since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.28(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.48(April 9th low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.06(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
The European stock benchmark rose on Friday, on course for its third weekly gain, as investors were cautiously optimistic of the weekend U.S.-Iran talks, despite signs of strain in the fragile ceasefire agreement.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.86 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.51percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday and were on track for a weekly gain, supported mainly by a weaker U.S. dollar following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,778.89 per ounce as of 9:29 a.m. ET (1329 GMT). It has gained over 2% so far this week.
Oil prices were on track for their steepest weekly decline since last June, though they continued to trade near the $100-per-barrel mark.
Brent crude futures were down 36 cents, or 0.4%, at $95.56 a barrel by 1317 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 15 cents, or around 0.2%, to $98.02.
