Market Roundup
• Spain HCOB Spain Services PMI (Mar): 53.3, 50.7 forecast, 51.9 previous
•Italy HCOB Italy Services PMI (Mar): 48.8, 51.0 forecast, 52.3 previous
•Italy HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Mar): 49.2, 52.1 previous
•France HCOB France Services PMI (Mar): 48.8, 48.3 forecast, 49.6 previous
•France HCOB France Composite PMI (Mar): 48.8, 48.3 forecast, 49.9 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Services PMI (Mar): 50.9, 51.2 forecast, 53.5 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Mar): 51.9, 51.9 forecast, 53.2 previous
•UK New Passenger Cars Registration (Mar): 380,627, 90,100 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Mar): 6.6%, 7.2% previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar): 50.3, 51.0 forecast, 53.7 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar): 50.5, 51.2 forecast, 53.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb): -1.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb): 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Durables Excluding Defense MoM (Feb): 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air MoM (Feb): 0.1% previous
•12:55 US Redbook YoY: 6.9% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.660% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.238% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.407% previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar): 55.9 forecast, 56.6 previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): 1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar as investors weary of the relentless headlines from the Middle East picked winners selectively. Repeated false dawns and harsh rhetoric from both sides have dimmed investors' hopes of a swift end to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, now in its sixth week. Iran rejected a U.S. proposal for an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a source aware of the plan. U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a deadline of 8 p.m. Tuesday (0000 GMT) for a deal to be reached. Investors will also closely watch U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with solid readings likely to prompt investors to price in further rate hikes if energy prices rise again. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1629 (April 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1401(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher Tuesday ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.Iran showed no sign of agreeing to Trump's demand that it open the strait by the end of Tuesday or suffer massive attacks on its civilian infrastructure, in what would be the biggest escalation yet of the war.. Britain is highly exposed to energy imports and investors remain nervous about the country's fragile public finances.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week markets were still getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes by the central bank, which wants to avoid adding to the damage Britain’s economy faces.On the data front, Businesses in Britain's services sector reported the biggest month-on-month jump in costs in March since 2021, while a Bank of England survey showed last week that British companies expect to raise prices more quickly in the coming 12 months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3269(April 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3303(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3182(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3153(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower as trading subdued as investors remained cautious amid lingering U.S.-Iran tensions. The pair is struggling to gain momentum, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in global markets.WTI crude oil continued to trade above $113 a barrel in Asian sessions, with spot premiums reaching all-time highs. Iran rejected Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal, as U.S. President Trump’s Tuesday deadline for a deal looms. Market participants remain wary of escalating conflict risks that could disrupt global energy flows. On the data front, Australia’s household spending for February rose 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from January. While steady, the data is now seen as less market-moving given larger macro and geopolitical concerns. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6945(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6990(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6862(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6810(Higher BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against yen as the yen weakened on soft Japan household spending data, though intervention fears helped limit losses. Japanese household spending in February fell 1.8% from a year earlier, internal affairs ministry data showed on Tuesday, versus the median market forecast for a 0.7% fall.On a seasonally adjusted, month-on-month basis, spending increased 1.5%, less than an estimated 2.6% rise. Meanwhile, the Iran conflict is raising concerns that Japan’s economy could face significant pressure, given its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.82(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.99(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Tuesday as investors returned from the Easter break and continued to monitor developments in the Middle East.
At (GMT 12:18 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.40percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar weakened and oil prices eased, while investors remained focused on developments in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,674.19 per ounce by 1017 GMT, after rising 1% earlier in the session, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.3% to $4,700.40.
Oil prices hovered around $110 a barrel on Tuesday as a deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump loomed for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or be "taken out".
Brent crude futures were down 95 cents, or 0.9%, at $108.82 a barrel by 0920 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit a four-week high at over $116 a barrel earlier in the session, but erased those gains to trade down 11 cents, or 0.1%, at $112.30.
