Europe Roundup: Euro dips against dollar, European stocks steady , Gold eases from record peak,Oil slips -March 19th,2025

Market Roundup

• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous

• EU CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous

• EU CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous

• EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Feb) 2.2%, 2.4% previous

• EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, -0.3% previous

• EU CPI, n.s.a (Feb) 127.26, 127.32 forecast, 126.72 previous

• EU Wages in Euro Zone (YoY) (Q4) 4.10%, 4.30% previous

• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Feb) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous

• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, -0.7% previous

• EU Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q4) 3.70%, 4.50% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•13:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.800M forecast, 1.448M previous

•13:30 US  EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.321M previous

•13:30 US  Crude Oil Imports 0.503M previous

•13:30 US  Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.228M previous

•13:30 US  Distillate Fuel Production -0.113M previous

•13:30 US  EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.180M forecast, -1.559M previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. With a week full of central bank meetings, the Fed's policy announcement takes center stage. While the U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, any hints on future rate cuts to support growth will be closely watched.Markets are currently pricing in about 60 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, although several U.S. central bank officials have cautioned against the Fed moving too quickly on rates and said they would wait to see the impact of tariffs in economic data before making any policy shifts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Wednesday as investors awaited rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed’s policy announcement later in the day is the week’s key event, with markets looking for signals on potential rate cuts to support growth.In the UK, the BoE’s decision on Thursday will be closely watched, following an OECD report forecasting slower economic growth for Britain in 2025 and 2026. While both central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged this week, traders have priced in at least two rate cuts from the BoE and the Fed this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Wednesday as  traders attention  turned  and Federal Reserve's policy decision and upcoming Australian employment data.The Fed's policy decision on Wednesday will be key for investors seeking insight into the central bank's view on Trump's policies, their economic impact, and the implications for interest rates.Fed policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged and will release updated economic projections at the meeting’s conclusion later today..Australia's employment data is set for release on Thursday, with another strong report expected to keep the jobless rate at 4.1%. At GMT 12:13, The Australian dollar  was last  trading down  0.38 % to $0.6336. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6413(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6337(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6288(50%fib).

 USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Wednesday as Japanese yen weakened after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Wednesday in a widely expected move, as policymakers chose to spend more time gauging how prospects of higher U.S. tariffs would affect the export-focused economy. The board voted unanimously to maintain the bank's short-term policy rate at 0.5% at a two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday .This decision came amid concerns about a global slowdown driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which overshadowed wage and price data indicating Japan's progress toward sustainably achieving the BOJ's 2% inflation target.   Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).

Equities Recap          

European shares fluctuated on Wednesday, while U.S. futures edged higher after Wall Street's selloff, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision later in the day.

At GMT (12:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.25percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.15 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold slightly eased on Wednesday, as some profit-booking kicked in after prices scaled a record peak, while focus shifted to U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision due later in the day.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,027.89 an ounce, as of 0930 GMT, after hitting an all-time peak of $3,045.24 earlier in the session.

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday after Russia accepted Trump’s proposal for a temporary halt in attacks on energy infrastructure, raising prospects of Russian oil returning to global markets.

Brent crude futures slipped 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $69.97 a barrel at 1130 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was down 12 cents, or 0.18%, at $66.78.