Market Roundup
• United Kingdom CPI (YoY) (Jan): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.4% previous.
• United Kingdom PPI Input (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous.
• United Kingdom CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• United Kingdom Core PPI Output (YoY) (Jan): 2.9%, 3.1% previous.
• United Kingdom Core PPI Output (MoM) (Jan): 0.2%, -0.2% previous.
• United Kingdom PPI Output (YoY) (Jan): 2.5%, 3.1% previous.
• United Kingdom PPI Input (YoY) (Jan): -0.2%, 0.5% previous.
• United Kingdom RPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.5%, -0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• United Kingdom Core RPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.5%, 0.7% previous.
• United Kingdom RPI (YoY) (Jan): 3.8%, 3.8% forecast, 4.2% previous.
• United Kingdom CPI, n.s.a (Jan): 139.50, 140.10 previous.
• United Kingdom Core RPI (YoY) (Jan): 3.7%, 4.1% previous.
• United Kingdom Core CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.6%, -0.7% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• United Kingdom Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): 3.1%, 3.0% forecast, 3.2% previous.
• United Kingdom PPI Output (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous.
• France CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous.
• France HICP (MoM) (Jan): -0.4%, -0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous.
• France Inflation (YoY) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.7% previous.
• France HICP (YoY) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• France CPI (YoY) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous.
• US Housing Starts (Nov): 1.322M, 1.246M previous.
• US Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov): 3.9%, -4.6% previous.
• US Building Permits (Nov): 1.388M, 1.411M previous.
• US Building Permits (MoM) (Nov): -1.6%, -0.3% previous.
• US Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec): 6.2%, -4.2% previous.
• US Building Permits (Dec): 1.448M, 1.400M forecast, 1.388M previous.
• US Housing Starts (Dec): 1.404M, 1.310M forecast, 1.272M previous.
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec): -1.4%, -1.8% forecast, 5.4% previous.
• US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec): 0.9%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• US Building Permits (MoM) (Dec): 4.3%, -0.2% forecast, -1.6% previous.
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Dec): -2.5%, 6.6% previous.
• US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Dec): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous.
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Dec): 0.9%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) 1.99% previous.
•14:00 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•14:00 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast,0.2% previous.
•14:00 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Jan) 76.6% forecast, 76.3% previous.
•16:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•17:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•18:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Wednesday after a report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde planned to leave her role early.The Financial Times reported that Lagarde planned to leave her job before the end of her term in October 2027, although the central bank said no decision had been taken.Lagarde took office in 2019 and oversaw aggressive policy tightening in 2022 and 2023 to bring inflation under control. But with inflation now back close to the ECB's target and interest rates expected to remain on hold through 2026, Lagarde could be leaving the ECB at a relatively tranquil time. he former governors of the Spanish and Dutch central banks are seen as the front-runners to replace Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank, likely in a broader political deal that could see both of them end up with a major job. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as easing British inflation strengthened the case for a near-term rate cut from the Bank of England, even as underlying price pressures remained strong. Annual consumer prices rose 3% last month, slowing from 3.4% in December, according to official figures. Most economists polled by Reuters had expected headline inflation to drop to 3% in January.But inflation for services - closely watched as a gauge of domestic price pressures - slowed only marginally to 4.4% from 4.5% in December, above the Reuters poll expectations for a fall to 4.3%. Investors are assigning a roughly 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the BoE next month, up slightly from Tuesday. Money market traders are fully pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged slightly lower on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s latest wage inflation data, which showed steady but unspectacular growth and offered little new impetus for the currency.Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the Wage Price Index rose 0.8% in the December quarter, matching both the previous quarter’s increase and market expectations. This indicates that wage growth remains stable, with private sector wages showing modest improvement, but not accelerating enough to significantly shift monetary policy expectations.On an annual basis, wage growth edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%, remaining within a narrow range of 3.2% to 3.6% for six consecutive quarters. This steady pattern suggests that while labour market conditions remain firm, wage pressures are not intensifying sharply.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Wednesday stronger dollar outweighed the impact of stronger-than-expected Japanese trade data, as broader market sentiment continued to favor the greenback.Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed that exports surged 16.8% year-on-year in January, marking the fifth consecutive month of export growth and highlighting solid external demand. Meanwhile, imports declined 2.5% compared with a year earlier, defying economists’ expectations for a 3% increase. As a result, Japan’s trade deficit narrowed significantly to 1.15 trillion yen ($7.50 billion), much smaller than the forecast deficit of 2.14 trillion yen.The stronger export performance and narrower trade deficit suggest improving external sector conditions, which could support Japan’s economic outlook. This has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue gradually normalizing its monetary policy after years of ultra-loose settings.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.24(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.0 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European edged higher on Friday as concerns over potential AI-related disruptions kept investors cautious, while mixed earnings from Safran and L’Oreal added to market uncertainty.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 1.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.31 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose over 1% on Wednesday, rebounding from a one-week low, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes for clues on the rate outlook.
Spot gold was up 1% at $4,927.19 per ounce by 1240 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for April delivery gained 0.9%to $4,947.70.
Oil prices gained nearly 3% on Wednesday after peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended after only two hours, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy describing them as "difficult".
Brent crude oil futures were up $1.85, or 2.7%, to $69.27 a barrel at 1227 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $1.78, or 2.9%, at $64.11.
