Market Roundup
• Swiss PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• Swiss PPI (YoY) (Feb) -0.1%,-0.3% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) 0.0%,-0.9% forecast, -1.5% previous
•Italian 15-Year BTP Auction 3.72%, 3.57% previous
•Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.77%, 2.52% previous
•Italian 30-Year BTP Auction 4.700%, 3.940% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,900K forecast, 1,897K previous
•12:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.6% forecast, 3.6% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 226K forecast, 221K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.25K previous
•12:30 US PPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.3% forecast, 3.5% previous
•12:30 US PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Feb) 3.4% previous
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Jan) -5.3% forecast, 11.0% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage -46B forecast, -80B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.230% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.220% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:00 German Buba Balz Speaks
•17:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•17:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained near multi-month highs against the dollar on Thursday traders awaited the outcome of a debate in Germany over extensive fiscal reforms. The euro has gained further support from Germany's fiscal reset plan. Germany's outgoing lower house of parliament will hold a special session on Thursday to discuss a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and significant changes to borrowing rules in Europe's largest economy aimed at strengthening defense. The euro was last $1.0880 down marginally but near the five-month top hit earlier in the week, and sterling was steady $1.2963. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0959 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0697(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Thursday as investors continued to assess the impact of Trump’s trade war. Market participants were focused on the latest developments in Trump's trade saga after the U.S. President announced plans to impose additional tariffs following retaliatory measures from the European Union and Canada. Meanwhile, a survey revealed that Britain’s housing market had its slowest month in over a year in February, as the rush by buyers to close deals ahead of the expiry of a tax break lost momentum. Further softening in the housing market was expected in the months ahead.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3003(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3059(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2876(March 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2822(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as global trade tensions fueled risk aversion, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. President Trump issued a new tariff threat against EU goods on Wednesday, further escalating trade tensions. The move comes as key U.S. trading partners vowed to retaliate against his existing trade barriers, raising concerns about a broader economic fallout.Rising global trade tensions and U.S. recession fears have shaken markets, fueling high volatility in market as investors react to Trump's unpredictable policy shifts.At GMT 12:26, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.51% to $0.6287.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6332(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6382(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6290(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6249(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday as expectations that Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep rates steady at next week's policy meeting increased demand for yen .The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its key interest rate steady at its March 19 meeting, with over two-thirds of economists expecting a 25-basis-point hike to 0.75% in the third quarter, most likely in July. BOJ policymakers expect wage gains to broaden and underpin consumption, allowing the central bank to keep increasing its short-term policy rate from the current 0.5%.At GMT 08:23,the dollar was up 0.07% at 147.37 against Japanese Yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.14(March 12th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.93(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Thursday, boosted by gains in healthcare stocks, although investor concerns persisted over U.S. President Donald Trump potentially escalating a global trade war.
At GMT (12:26) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered near record highs on Thursday, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid tariff concerns and a U.S. inflation report that reinforced expectations of a potential rate cut.
Spot gold gained 0.5% to $2,946.68 an ounce, as of 1131 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24 due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs.
Oil prices fell on Thursday, following a sharp rise in the previous session due to a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. gasoline stocks, as markets balanced macroeconomic concerns with demand and supply expectations.
Brent futures were down 30 cents to $70.65 a barrel at 1140 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 31 cents to $67.37 a barrel.
