Market Roundup
• UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 0.7%, 1.9% previous.
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct): 1.5%, 0.3% forecast, 2.0% previous.
•France Current Account (Oct): 1.10B, -1.60B previous.
•France Exports (Oct): 51.7B, 52.0B previous.
•France Imports (Oct): 55.6B, 58.3B previous.
•France Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•France Trade Balance (Oct): -3.9B, -6.8B forecast, -6.4B previous.
•Switzerland Foreign Reserves (USD) (Nov): 727.4B, 724.9B previous.
•Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) (Q3): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•Eurozone Employment Overall (Q3): 170,411.4K, 170,278.9K forecast, 169,778.7K previous.
•Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•15:00 US US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 2.9% forecast,, 2.9% previous.
•15:00 US US Dallas Fed PCE (Sep): 2.80% previous.
•15:00 US US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•15:00 US US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Sep): 0.6% previous.
•15:00 US US Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep): 1.4% previous.
•15:00 US US Factory Orders ex-Transportation (MoM) (Sep): 0.1% previous.
•15:00 US US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): 4.5% previous.
•15:00 US US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): 3.4% previous.
•15:00 US US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec): 52.0 forecast, 51.0 previous.
•15:00 US US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec): 51.0 previous.
•15:00 US US Michigan Current Conditions (Dec): 51.3 forecast, 51.1 previous.
•15:00 US US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•15:00 US US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•15:00 US US Personal Income (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•15:00 US US Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•15:00 US US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% previous.
•18:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 407 previous.
•18:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 544 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:10 ECB's Lane Speaks
•16:20 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as greenback slipped ahead of key inflation data as investors looked for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction ahead of next week’s meeting. Investors are awaiting the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due at 1500 GMT.U.S. data on Thursday showed jobless claims fell to 191,000 last week the lowest in over three years and well below the 220,000 forecast.ADP data released on Wednesday showed that private payrolls declined by 32,000 in November, marking the steepest drop in over two and a half years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of the release of key inflation data that could influence a deeply divided Federal Reserve. The broad dollar weakness reflects market expectations that the Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due later in the day, though the data covers September. Forecasts point to a 0.2% rise in the core measure, leaving the annual rate steady at 2.9%. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report will not be released on Friday. Data on Thursday showed jobless claims fell sharply last week, easing fears of a significant labor market slowdown, though the drop may be influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed against the U.S. dollar on Friday as markets priced in a real possibility of rate hikes next year, driving bond yield spreads sharply in Australia’s favour. The RBA governor said on Wednesday that the economy was likely already operating at its potential growth limit and warned that if inflation remains more persistent than expected, it could influence the interest rate outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets for the final time this year next week, and a run of strong data on inflation, growth and household spending has removed any chance of a cut to the 3.60% cash rate. Markets will now focus on the RBA’s statement and press conference for clues on how concerned policymakers are about the recent upside surprises in the data.Swaps imply the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain on hold until late next year, but are pricing in a 75% probability for a rate hike by the end of 2026.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6619(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6629 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6557(Oct 2nd low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6553(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped but later recovered on Friday as expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike overshadowed Japanese household spending data. Household spending in Japan fell at its fastest pace in nearly two years in October, declining 3.5% on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, sharply missing forecasts for a 0.7% increase. The data raised concerns about the economic outlook as the BOJ weighs a possible rate hike as early as this month. The indicator will be among the key factors the central bank considers when deciding whether to raise rates in December or delay action until next year. Earlier this week, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ would assess the “pros and cons” of a rate hike at its next policy meeting, signaling a strong likelihood of an increase to 0.75% later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.34 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares steadied on Friday after three straight sessions of gains put them on track for a weekly rise, as investors awaited a key U.S. inflation reading.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.81 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold gained on Friday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut, with markets focused on upcoming inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week.
Spot gold rose 0.5%to $4,226.99 per ounce, as of 1208GMT, but was on track for a 0.1% weekly decline.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery edged 0.3% higher to $4,257.40 per ounce.
Oil prices were steady on Friday, supported by stalled Ukraine peace talks, though gains were capped by expectations of a looming supply glut.
Brent crude was down 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.19 per barrel by 1255 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.57 a barrel.
