Market Roundup
• Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Mar): -2.9%, -1.4% forecast, -1.8% previous.
•Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Mar): -1.3%, 0.6% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (Apr): 1,383.0B, 1,374.7B previous.
•Australia NAB Business Confidence (Apr): -24, -29 previous.
•Australia NAB Business Survey (Apr): 3, 6 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): -21.6 forecast, -20.4 previous.
• 10:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): -19.1 forecast, -17.2 previous.
• 10:00 Germany ZEW Current Conditions (May): -77.5 forecast, -73.7 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as U.S. dollar strengthened broadly on Tuesday as talks to end the war in the Middle East showed no signs of progress.Investors now fear that the ceasefire that has been in place since April 7 could be in danger and hostilities could resume in the conflict, which began at the end of February, killing thousands and halting vital energy flows.U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" after the latest back and forth on a proposal to end the war made clear the two sides were still far apart on a number of issues.The euro weakened 0.24% to $1.1754,. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1812(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1736(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns grew that the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire may be weakening after Trump said the truce was “on life support.”. Trump said on Monday the ceasefire was "on life support", citing disagreements over key demands, including a halt to hostilities on multiple fronts, the lifting of a U.S. naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil exports, and compensation for war damage.The spotlight will be on a U.S. inflation report, which is forecast to show consumer prices rose 0.6% last month after jumping 0.9% in March, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Estimates ranged from a 0.4% gain to a 0.9% rise.The data will reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. Traders have priced out the prospect of rate cuts for the year compared to the two cuts expected before the Iran war broke out. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3658(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3701(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3571(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3532(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the evolving Middle East conflict and its implications for global risk sentiment.The pair continues to maintain an underlying bullish tone, although near-term direction is likely to remain heavily dependent on headlines surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and energy market developments.Attention now turns to several key domestic and U.S. economic events this week. Australia’s federal budget, due Tuesday, will be closely watched for any measures that could add to inflation pressures.The U.S. April CPI report is expected to show inflation rising 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year.Further focus will shift to Australia’s Q1 Wage Price Index on Wednesday, which could provide fresh insight into persistent services inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7280(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7297(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7229(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.711(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday after the U.S. and Japan reaffirmed “constant and robust” coordination against excessive currency volatility.Japan and the U.S. reaffirmed close coordination on currency markets, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said after talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday.Having reportedly spent around $63.7 billion intervening in currency markets, Tokyo is seen relying on Scott Bessent’s visit to reinforce market confidence through supportive messaging from Washington.BOJ board members leaned more hawkish in April, with one policymaker pointing to a potential June rate hike as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher.Minutes from the BOJ’s April meeting showed a divide on the board, with some favouring patience while others saw mounting inflation risks warranting near-term tightening.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.16(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks firmed on Tuesday as investors awaited a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.44% , Hang Seng was down at 0.12%, China A50 was up at 0.33%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Tuesday as investors assessed developments in the Middle East conflict and awaited key U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Spot gold fell 0.6% at $4,705.99 per ounce by 0603 GMT, after climbing to a three-week high earlier in the session.
Oil prices climbed nearly 1% on Tuesday as fragile U.S.-Iran peace talks kept supply concerns elevated, with major disagreements between Washington and Tehran clouding prospects for a deal..
Brent crude futures were up 86 cents, or 0.8%, at $105.07 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 99 cents, or 1%, to $99.06 at 0411 GMT. Both benchmarks increased nearly 2.8% on Monday.
