Market Roundup
• German Trade Balance (Apr): 14.5B, 15.4B forecast, 14.7B previous.
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous.
• German Imports (MoM) (Apr): 1.2%, 4.5% previous.
• German Exports (MoM) (Apr): 0.9%, -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr): -0.54%, -3.50% previous.
• Japanese Machine Tool Orders (YoY): 37.4%, 45.1% previous.
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly: 29.00K, 35.75K previous.
• Canadian Trade Balance (Apr): 2.72B, 2.50B forecast, 1.75B previous.
• US Trade Balance (Apr): -55.90B, -56.20B forecast, -56.60B previous.
• US Exports (Apr): 327.10B, 320.90B previous.
• US Imports (Apr): 383.00B, 381.20B previous.
• Canadian Imports (Apr): 72.44B, 72.23B previous.
• Canadian Exports (Apr): 75.16B, 73.98B previous.
• US Redbook (YoY): 9.1%, 9.0% previous.
• US Existing Home Sales (May): 4.17M, 4.07M forecast, 4.04M previous.
• US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May): 3.2%, 0.7% previous.
• US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Apr): 2.0%, 3.0% previous.
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Apr): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 1.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 3.0% forecast,3.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher but gains were limited as Middle East uncertainty kept investors cautious. Investors also kept an eye on developments in the Middle East after Iran and Israel halted attacks on each other, though caution prevailed as diplomatic talks so far have failed to deliver a lasting peace and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, remains shut. Inflation concerns have had markets price in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the European Central Bank at the meeting on Thursday, but the focus will be on the monetary policy path ahead. German industrial production rose less than expected in April and economists said the outlook for Europe's largest economy remains weak, despite an unexpected increase in exports. Industrial production rose by 0.4% in April compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.5% rise. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1633(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1673(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1505(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1481(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Tuesday as risk appetite improved and the U.S. currency eased on hopes for a Middle East peace deal.Global markets were also eyeing signs of de-escalation in the Middle East after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump, who also said that he could have "an idea" for an Iran deal within a few days.Inflation concerns, stemming from higher energy costs due to the conflict, have had investors price in a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of England in September. Investors will closely watch GDP data on Friday for clues on the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3429(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3307(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3239(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged slightly higher against dollar on Tuesday, but the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as risk sentiment stays fragile amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.U.S. diplomatic pressure on Iran and Israel has helped reduce immediate escalation fears, but tensions persist particularly with Yemen’s Houthi rebels threatening to disrupt Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea.A survey showed Australian consumer sentiment declined in June amid rising loan costs and petrol prices, with softer housing market expectations.The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey showed consumer sentiment fell 2.9% in June to 80.6, with readings below 100 indicating more pessimists than optimists.Investors await next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, with rates expected to stay unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.70740(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7144(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7027(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6986(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Tuesday but fears of imminent currency intervention by Japanese authorities capped the upside for the pair.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said there was no change in Tokyo's stance and reiterated its readiness to take decisive action against excessive currency volatility.Meanwhile, Japan’s Economic Revitalisation Minister Minoru Kiuchi said he hopes the BOJ will cooperate with the government to sustainably reach the 2% inflation target.At a press conference, he noted that the BOJ is responsible for deciding specific monetary policy measures, including any near-term rate hike.The BOJ is expected to raise its short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75% at its two-day policy meeting ending on June 16 unless a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict upends markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.46(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.58(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.23(June 8th low) a break below could take the pair towards 159.49(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares rose slightly on Tuesday, led by banks as easing Middle East tensions boosted sentiment, while GSK slipped after agreeing to buy U.S.-based Nuvalent for $10.6 billion.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.59 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, reversing the previous session's gains after Iran and Israel paused attacks following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump, although both sides warned hostilities could resume.
Brent crude futures were down $1.65, or 1.75%, at $92.60 a barrel at 1236 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined $2.19, or 2.4%, to $89.11 a barrel.
Gold edged higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a two-month low, as a weaker dollar and lower oil prices supported prices while investors assessed Middle East peace prospects ahead of key inflation data.
Spot gold edged 0.2% higher at $4,338.69 per ounce, as of 9:05 a.m. ET (1305 GMT). It fell to its lowest level since March 23 in the previous session.U.S. gold futures for August delivery were steady at $4,363.90.
