Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.3, 50.9 forecast, 50.6 previous
•HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 50.0, 50.2 forecast, 50.2 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 52.2, 51.7 forecast, 50.9 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.6, 51.4 forecast, 50.8 previous
•S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 54.5, 54.4 previous
•Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Feb): 5.3%, 5.2% forecast, 5.2% previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.0, 51.4 forecast, 51.7 previous
•EU Unemployment Rate (Feb): 6.2%, 6.1% forecast, 6.1% previous
•Greek Unemployment Rate (Feb): 8.5%, 7.9% previous
•US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar): 62K, 41K forecast, 66K previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 3.71%, 3.19% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 50.0, 51.0 previous
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 52.3, 52.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 52.7, 52.3 forecast, 52.4 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar): 48.7, 49.0 forecast, 48.8 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar): 78.3, 74.0 forecast, 70.5 previous
•US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan): 0.3%, 0.4% previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Mar): 53.5, 54.5 forecast, 55.8 previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories: 5.451M, 1.800M forecast, 6.926M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.520M, 3.421M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Wednesday as investors grew cautiously optimistic about prospects for a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, though mixed signals kept markets on edge.The White House said U.S. President Donald Trump would address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday). The president said earlier in the day the U.S. could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war.At the same time, there were signs of escalation in the conflict. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1704 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1553(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1436(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose against the dollar on Wednesday as investors unwound some bets for a stronger U.S. currency on expectations that an end to the Iran war could be near, although markets remained on alert for further updates.U.S. President Donald Trump is due to address the nation at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday) to provide an "important update" on Iran. On Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. could end its military campaign within two to three weeks. Market expectations for rate hikes from the Bank of England have been scaled back after Trump signalled the war could end soon. The pound was last up 0.6% against the dollar to $1.3308, adding to a 0.3% gain from the day before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3333(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3235(38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3184(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Wednesday as improving market sentiment, driven by hopes of a possible de-escalation in the Iran conflict, supported risk currencies like the Australian dollar. Investors are increasingly reacting to geopolitical developments, with comments from Donald Trump indicating that attacks on Iran could potentially end within 2–3 weeks.Adding to the cautious optimism, unconfirmed reports suggest that Iran’s president may be open to a ceasefire. However, the conflict remains ongoing, keeping uncertainty elevated and limiting stronger risk rallies. Looking ahead, Australia’s February trade balance data is due Thursday, with markets expecting a surplus of around AUD 2.58 billion.. Meanwhile, key U.S. releases include February retail sales, expected to rise by 0.5% month-on-month, and the March nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, forecast at +60K. These will be crucial in shaping the U.S. dollar outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6959(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7008(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6893(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6839(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against yen on Wednesday on Wednesday as market optimism grew over a potential de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.Investors were encouraged after Donald Trump signaled that U.S. military operations in Iran could conclude “very soon,” pointing to a potential timeline of two to three weeks.The yen rebounded from this year’s low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back above the key 160 level that had raised concerns of intervention by Japanese authorities.On the data front, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved in the three months to March, though firms expect conditions to worsen in the next three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.98(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.09(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.22 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe’s STOXX 600 surged over 2% on Wednesday, as Donald Trump comments on a potential near-term end to the Middle East conflict fueled a global equity rally.
At GMT (15:34) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.82 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 2.94 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 2.00 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to near a two-week high as the U.S. dollar weakened, with traders focused on the Middle East conflict and its impact on global monetary policy.
Spot gold was up 1.3% to $4,728.75 per ounce by 1309 GMT after hitting its highest level since March 19 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 1.7% to $4,755.70.
Oil reversed earlier gains on Wednesday as Middle East uncertainty weighed on sentiment, even after Donald Trump suggested the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could be nearing an end.
Front-month Brent for June fell $1.85 (1.8%) to $102.12 per barrel by 1414 GMT, after hitting a low of $98.35. U.S. WTI crude for May slipped $1.07 (1.1%) to $100.31, having earlier dropped to $96.50.
