Market Roundup
•German CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (Feb): 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•German HICP (YoY) (Feb): 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•German HICP (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan): 4.0%, 2.8% previous.
•US CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US CPI (YoY) (Feb): 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Feb): 326.79, 326.79 forecast, 325.25 previous.
•US Core CPI Index (Feb): 333.51, 332.79 previous.
•US CPI n.s.a (MoM) (Feb): 0.47%, 0.37% previous.
•US CPI Index, s.a (Feb): 327.46, 326.59 previous.
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Feb): 0.1%, 0.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 2.800M forecast,3.475M previous.
• 14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.564M previous
• 14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -2.600M forecast,-1.704M previous
• 14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.700M forecast, 0.429M previous
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.019M previous
• 15:00 US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro steadied on Wednesday as investors awaited a slew of U.S. economic data this week to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.The U.S. and Israel pounded Iran with what the Pentagon and the Iranians on the ground called the most intense airstrikes of the war, despite global markets betting that Trump will seek to end the conflict soon.The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, stranding tankers for more than a week and forcing producers to halt output as storage fills, driving energy prices soaring.Markets are now awaiting the U.S. consumer price index for February, due later in the day, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1670(March 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1509(March 9th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1459(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound inched higher on Wednesday as traders weighing fears of an oil supply shock from the Middle East conflict against reports of potential reserve releases. A hike in energy prices has stirred concern over import-reliant economies such as Britain's. Oxford Economics estimated that UK inflation could be 0.4 percentage points higher if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil flows, was disrupted for up to two months. Global factors have also shifted attention away from the domestic economic and political risks that weighed on the pound in recent weeks. Oil prices climbed on Wednesday despite reports that the International Energy Agency was planning a record release of oil reserves. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3328(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3118(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3125(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed to a multi-year high on Wednesday, supported by stronger risk sentiment and growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could take a more hawkish stance on interest rates.RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that the recent surge in oil prices could push inflation higher, potentially increasing the need for tighter monetary policy. His remarks reinforced market concerns that elevated energy costs could complicate the inflation outlook ahead of the central bank’s next policy decision.RBA Governor Michele Bullock added to the hawkish tone, saying the March 17 policy meeting remains “live” and that there is a “genuine debate” within the central bank about whether further tightening may be required. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.70176(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7194(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7114(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7079(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Wednesday as traders awaited news on the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran, while mixed messages kept markets cautious. Markets expect Trump to end the Iran conflict soon, but his threats over blocked Strait of Hormuz energy flows keep sentiment mixed. The fast-evolving developments in the Middle East have left traders grappling with how to best price the risk, and for now they appear to be on the sidelines.On the data front, investors will focus on U.S. February inflation data Wednesday, with core prices expected up 0.2% and headline prices up 0.3%.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell Wednesday as investors assessed the economic impact of the 12-day Middle East war and mixed corporate updates.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.66 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.92 percent, France’s CAC was down by 021 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower Wednesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and lingering inflation concerns that raised the prospect of higher interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $5,177.50 per ounce, as of 9:18 a.m. ET (1318 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 1.1% to $5,185.20.
Oil prices rebounded Wednesday as markets questioned whether a record reserve release by the International Energy Agency could offset supply risks from the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran.
Brent futures traded up $3.31, or 3.8%, at $91.11 a barrel by 1159 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded $3.13 higher, also 3.8%, at $86.58 a barrel.
