FxWirePro: AUD/USD gains modestly as Geopolitical risks keep markets cautious 
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Market Roundup
•UK GDP (MoM) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jul) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Jul) -9.66B, -10.45B previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.9%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Trade Balance (Jul) -20.97B, -22.60B forecast, -23.01B previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Jul) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
••UK GDP (YoY) (Jul) 1.6%, 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul) 2.6%, 2.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Jul) -2.5%, -2.3% forecast, -2.3% previous
•UK Index of Services (Jul) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Aug) 337.77, 336.79 previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Aug) 334.98, 334.85 forecast, 333.92 previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.1% previous
•US CPI, n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) 0.32%, -0.01% previous
•US CPI Index, s.a. (Aug) 334.13, 332.81 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
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Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar on Friday initially dipped but recovered ground as investors assessed US CPI data. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index report on Friday followed strong readings in several components of the Producer Price Index released on Thursday that feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes, the inflation measures the U.S. central bank tracks for its 2% target. Soon after the CPI data was published, financial markets priced in a roughly 91% chance of a rate hike next week, up from about 72% on Thursday, CME's FedWatch tool showed..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1641(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1677(Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1612(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors digested UK GDP data and US inflation figures. British gross domestic product in July was 1.6% higher than a year earlier, the fastest annual growth since February 2025 and above economists' 1.2% forecast, the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday.The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last month after edging up 0.1% in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. In the 12 months through August, consumer inflation advanced 3.4% after rising by the same margin in July.Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in a 85% chance of a rate hike at the central bank's policy meeting next week, up from 67% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(SMA 20 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3535(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3483(Sep 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian edged higher on Friday as eased slightly after U.S. inflation data.The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last month after edging up 0.1% in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. In the 12 months through August, consumer inflation advanced 3.4% after rising by the same margin in July.Oil prices fell on Friday, but remained on course for a weekly gain.Higher oil prices stoke inflation fears and bolster expectations of the Fed raising interest rates.Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in a 85% chance of a rate hike at the central bank's policy meeting next week, up from 67% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7258(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7161 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07121(Sep 2nd low)
USD /JPY :The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Friday as Japanese yen firmed after data showed wholesale inflation rose in August.Japan’s producer price index rose 7.6% year-on-year in August, beating the median market forecast of a 7.4% increase, BOJ data showed. The gain followed a revised 7.7% rise in July.The data comes amid increasingly hawkish communication from the Bank of Japan, pushing markets to almost fully price a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1.25% at next week’s meeting.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank is closely monitoring wholesale inflation for signs of how much of the higher costs firms can pass on to households.The BOJ will next announce its policy decision on September 17-18, with markets nearly fully pricing a rate hike to 1.25% from 1%, following its increase in June.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.04(38.2%), an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.79(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.86(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Friday but remained on track for their biggest weekly decline in nearly two months, as elevated bond yields and rising expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes weighed on sentiment ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.67 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed over 1% on Friday, rebounding from recent losses and finding a short-term floor despite strong U.S. inflation data lifting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week.
Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,385.14 per ounce by 9:23 a.m. EDT (1323 GMT). However, the metal was down about 1% for the week so far.
Oil prices fell on Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain of more than 8%, while U.S. diesel prices hit a record high as attacks along Middle East shipping routes raised concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures were down $3.28, or 3.05%, to $104.35 a barrel at 1309 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.41, or 3.33%, to $99.07 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit their highest levels since mid-May earlier in the session.
