Market Roundup
• EU Current Account (Feb): 24.9B, 29.8B forecast, 40.4B previous
• EU Current Account (Feb): 24.9B, 29.8B forecast, 40.4B previous
• EU Current Account n.s.a. (Feb): 21.1B, 15.4B previous
• Italian Trade Balance EU (Feb): -0.65B, -1.10B previous
• Italian Trade Balance (Feb): 4.944B, 3.830B forecast, 1.129B previous
• EU Trade Balance (Feb): 11.5B, 11.7B forecast, -1.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Feb): 23.81B forecast, 46.73B previous
• 12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Feb): 11.390B previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 411 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 545 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:30 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•16:30 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•17:15 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Friday as investors awaited further details Middle East peace hopes. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the U.S. and Iran could take place over the weekend.Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are now seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, with the nuclear issue remaining a core obstacle. The dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against six major peers, was steady at 98.235. It was on track for a second straight week of declines, having given up most of the gains sparked by the war, as ceasefire optimism continued to reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound steadied on Friday, having returned to levels seen before the onset of the Iran war, with traders overlooking the renewed pressure on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign.Starmer is under pressure despite sacking a senior official following news that Britain's former ambassador to the United States had failed security vetting but was still handed the job. The war in the Middle East has caused a global energy price spike, fanning concern around inflation and growth.Money markets are betting on at least one 25 basis point rate increase from the BoE this year, a stark reversal from before the war began when there had been expectations for two rate cuts.Sterling was largely unchanged versus the dollar at $1.35305, in line with broader range bound currency markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar hovered near 4-year higher on Friday as optimism over a potential Middle East peace deal strengthened risk sentiment. Sentiment boosted by reports of a possible interim U.S.–Iran agreement ahead of a ceasefire deadline, alongside a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, both of which have improved hopes for broader diplomatic progress in the region. Market pricing has also turned more hawkish on the Reserve Bank of Australia, with futures now implying a 76% probability of a rate hike in May. The Antipodean was still on track for a weekly gain of about 1.2%, its third consecutive rise, having rallied nearly 5% from its March low of $0.6834.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7195 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7231(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7151(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7087(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as modest dollar uptick provided support to the currency pair. The U.S. dollar edged higher amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict reduced safe-haven demand and improved overall risk sentiment. The U.S. and Iran are said to be preparing for another round of talks ahead of the ceasefire deadline, even as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. The yen continues to be sensitive to rising oil prices, as Japan depends heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
The STOXX 600 was subdued on Friday but on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as investors stayed cautious ahead of a key weekend that could move the Middle East conflict closer to resolution
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At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.65 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.61 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Friday as hopes of renewed U.S.-Iran talks and a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire boosted expectations that the Middle East conflict could ease.
Brent crude futures declined by $3.08, or 3.10%, to $96.31 a barrel at 1138 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $3.36, or 3.55%, to $91.33 a barrel.
Gold was broadly steady on Friday and set for a fourth straight weekly gain, supported by optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran deal that eased inflation concerns and weakened the dollar.
Spot gold was largely flat at $4,799.85 per ounce by 1156 GMT, up about 1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for June rose 0.3% to $4,822.40.
