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Market Roundup
• Swiss CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%, 0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
• Swiss CPI (YoY) (Aug) 0.8%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 1.9%, 1.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q2) 2.8%, 0.5% previous
• HCOB Spain Services PMI (Aug) 57.8%, 59.0% forecast, 58.3% previous
• HCOB Italy Services PMI (Aug) 55.2%, 53.6% forecast, 52.5% previous
• HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Aug) 53.6%, 52.5% previous
• HCOB France Services PMI (Aug) 48.0%, 48.4% forecast, 49.6% previous
• HCOB France Composite PMI (Aug) 48.5%, 48.8% forecast, 49.4% previous
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Aug) 49.7%, 48.5% forecast, 49.8% previous
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Aug) 51.8%, 51.0% forecast, 51.3% previous
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Aug) 51.6%, 51.7% forecast, 51.7% previous
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Aug) 52.0%, 52.1% forecast, 52.0% previous
• S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 52.5%, 52.5% forecast, 52.2% previous
• S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 52.5%, 52.8% forecast, 52.1% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 206K, 205K forecast, 204K previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.2%, 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US Trade Balance (Jul) -88.60B, -89.40B forecast, -71.20B previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,779K, 1,771K previous
•US Exports (Jul) 310.70B, 314.70B previous
•US Imports (Jul) 399.30B, 388.00B previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.25K, 205.75K previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Jul) 0.77B, 3.20B forecast, 4.20B previous
•Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 1.0%, 0.7% forecast, -0.4% previous
•Canada Imports (Jul) 75.37B, 73.76B previous
•Canada Exports (Jul) 76.14B, 77.96B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.2 forecast, 54.1 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) 47.4 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) 70.3 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Aug) 57.2 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Aug) 59.1 previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 4.8% forecast, 4.8% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.650% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.670% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors awaited fresh U.S. economic data and comments from central bank officials for clues on whether the Federal Reserve could tighten policy this month.Market attention is now firmly focused on Friday’s key U.S. payrolls report, following weaker-than-expected private-sector employment data for August. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims rose only marginally, suggesting little change in labour-market conditions at the end of August. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended Aug. 29, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, slightly above the 205,000 claims forecast by economists polled by Reuters. The euro edged up 0.02% to $1.1589. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1597(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1502(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as improved risk sentiment and firmer commodity prices supported pound. War in the Middle East has heated up again in the last few days and global bond yields have risen sharply over the past week. The focus now shifts to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, where analysts forecast an increase of 56,000 in jobs, following July's shock drop of 23,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. The services sector in the UK grew for the second month in a row in August and confidence rose, a survey showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3552(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3565(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3482(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3435(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained ground on Thursday as stronger-than-expected economic data boosted expectations of an imminent RBA rate hike. Australia’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 2.1% year on year, according to data released Wednesday.On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased 0.4%, slightly above market expectations of 0.3%, supported by stronger private demand and higher mining exports.Australia’s July goods trade surplus widened to A$1.92 billion, exceeding the A$1.45 billion consensus. However, goods exports fell 3.3% month on month, pointing to weaker external demand despite the larger surplus.Markets are currently pricing in a 61.0% probability of a 25-basis-point RBA rate hike in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7179(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7215(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7123(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 07105(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency strengthened on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates later this month.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers would consider a rate hike as early as September, with inflation risks playing a key role in the decision, signalling a strong possibility of a move this month.The comments followed a U.S. Treasury statement that Secretary Scott Bessent had urged Ueda to take “decisive” monetary action to address the weak yen, further reinforcing expectations of a September rate increase.Meanwhile, hawkish BOJ board member Hajime Takata said the central bank should raise rates “nimbly” in response to inflationary pressures rather than follow a fixed semiannual schedule, helping prevent inflation from overshooting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.38(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.39(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level ).
Equities Recap
European equities moved broadly higher on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields eased and oil prices stabilised after three consecutive sessions of gains.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.92 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold extended its gains on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased from recent highs, while investors awaited key payrolls data that could influence expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,440.87 per ounce by 1217 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $4,487.70.
Oil prices climbed to fresh six-week highs on Thursday after new U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed Israeli threats against Tehran heightened concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East oil supplies.
Brent crude futures were up $1.66, or 1.7%, at $97.29 a barrel by 1200 GMT, erasing earlier losses, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $2.03, or 2.2%, to $93.04. Both contracts were heading for their fourth day of gains and hit six-week highs earlier in the session.
