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European wholesale natural gas prices plunged nearly 9% on Monday, mirroring a sharp decline in global oil prices after signs of easing tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over energy supply disruptions. The sell-off erased much of last week's gains, when fears of escalating conflict had pushed European gas prices to four-month highs.
The Dutch front-month TTF contract, Europe's benchmark for natural gas, dropped almost 9% in early trading, while Britain's wholesale gas benchmark posted a similar decline. The retreat followed a broader unwind of geopolitical risk premiums across global energy markets.
The decline came after crude oil prices fell more than 5% as Iranian officials indicated Tehran would halt attacks on commercial shipping routes if the United States suspended military strikes in the region. The development eased market fears over potential disruptions in key energy corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, both of which are critical for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.
Lower geopolitical risks also improved expectations for smoother LNG transportation, reducing the likelihood of cargo diversions to Asia and easing concerns over Europe's efforts to replenish gas inventories ahead of the winter heating season.
Despite Monday's sharp drop, Europe's natural gas market remains vulnerable. Underground gas storage across the region is currently around 54% full, below the five-year average. Last week, Norwegian energy company Equinor warned that Europe may struggle to reach its targeted 80% storage level before winter, highlighting ongoing supply concerns.
The decline in both natural gas and crude oil prices could provide welcome relief for the Eurozone economy by easing energy costs and helping moderate inflation. Lower energy prices may also influence expectations ahead of a pivotal week for global monetary policy, with investors closely watching interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.
While the latest price retreat has improved market sentiment, traders remain alert to any renewed geopolitical tensions that could once again disrupt global energy supplies and trigger fresh volatility in European natural gas prices.
