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The Eurozone periphery bonds traded narrowly mixed Monday as debt market remained volatile ahead of the United States Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting scheduled to be held this week.
The French 10-year bond yields, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1-1/2 basis points to 0.250 percent, Irish 10-year bonds yield fell 1 basis point to 0.480 percent, Italian equivalent also dipped 1 basis point to 1.324 percent, Netherlands 10-year bonds yield climbed 2 basis points to 0.130 percent, Portuguese equivalents tumbled 5 basis points to 3.424 percent and the Spanish 10-year bonds yield slid 2-1/2 basis points to 1.054 percent by 10:10 GMT.
The Bank of Japan will hold its two-day monetary policy meeting on 20-21 September, announcing its decision on Wednesday, 21 September is a close call. But, we foresee that the BoJ's 9-member policy board is likely to cut rates on excess reserves and expand its monetary base as stagnant growth and continued risk of deflation will weigh on BoJ Governor Kuroda’s decision.
According to recent Reuters poll, 60 percent of economists see the Bank of Japan easing in September 21; 40 percent see them stay unchanged. Pollsters are split on possible policy action and over 50 percent said the BoJ will adopt more flexible wording on inflation targeting.
Various articles published yesterday pointed to the higher probability that the Japanese central bank will lower its key policy rate by about 10-20 basis points. According to Nikkei daily paper and Reuters, the BoJ will cut its interest rate deeper into negative territory.
Although other news articles, including another one from Bloomberg, affirms that there are a variety of different opinions on the board and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his delegates reportedly prefer a rate move to expanding quantitative easing, which is thought to be reaching its limit. Therefore, this backs our expectation that the marginal deposit rate will be trimmed next Wednesday.
Moreover, the United States Federal Reserve in its meeting scheduled on September 20-21 and it is widely expected to leave its interest rates on hold, despite concerns that the strength of the world’s largest economy warrants a rise in borrowing costs. The September FOMC statement as a potential rude awakening for markets who have come to interpret 'data dependence' to mean everything has to be perfect for the FOMC to act.
Given the continued support from labour markets and gradual improvement in pricing measures, coupled with a closing window ahead of the November elections, September sets itself up as quite possibly the best time to act (particularly given that supportive data is not something that can be a guarantee come the December meeting).
Lastly, investors will also remain keen to focus on the upcoming ECB President Draghi speech and PMI data.
Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.91 percent and the euro-area blue-chip gauge the STOXX 50 climbed 1.17 percent, the PSI20 Index climbed 1.16 percent, the DAX traded 0.70 percent higher and the CAC-40 rose 1.34 percent by 10:10 GMT.
