A sharp reduction in commercial jetliner bookings, combined with the first decline in motor vehicle bookings since May, likely trimmed transport requisitions by a hefty 8.0% during the reference period, following an impressive 17.0% jump over the June-July span.
"Widespread cutbacks in US transportation equipment requisitions probably left durable goods orders 1.9% lower in August, erasing all but a fraction of July's reported 2.2% gain", says Societe Generale.
Core nondefense capital goods bookings likely accelerated further in August, jumping by 3.3% and boosting the cumulative increase over the latest three months to 7.1%. Nondefense capital goods shipments, an input into the Bureau of Economic Analysis' equipment spending estimates - probably followed suit with a 2.1% rise.
"Away from the transportation-equipment segment, a very solid report is expected. Indeed, non-transportation orders likely climbed by 1.3%, the largest increase in 12 months. Closely followed nondefense capital goods soundings excluding commercial aircraft probably will add to the positive tone of the Census Bureau's advance report", forecasts Societe Generale.
This forecast, if realized, would place core capital goods deliveries over the July-August span 9.0% annualized above their April-June average, after acomparatively modest 0.3% uptick during the spring.
