RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
RBA Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points as Inflation Pressures Persist 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 22nd April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 93.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 10.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 89.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 26.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 73.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 31.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 68.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 7.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 35 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 56.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities haven’t changed much.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 43.7 percent probability, compared to 42.7 percent last week, and 53.5 percent in the week before that.
