Fed to hike rates this year

At her testimony to the Senate and in a speech last Friday, Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen affirmed that a rate hike later this year will be appropriate if the economy develops as expected. She focused on the US economy's progress since the financial crisis but also conceded that there are external risks, especially from the situation in Greece and in China.

But she revealed no new insights. At the end of the day, interest rate policy will be determined by data, especially those that provide information about the amount of slack in the labour market.

"The Fed's baseline scenario reflected in the FOMC members' projections from June is realistic. Moreover, the relative calm on the markets despite the temporary Grexit threat has given reason to expect that the consequences of the Greek crisis for the US economy will remain very limited if the crisis should flare up again", says Commerzbank. 

Accordingly, the first rate hike for September, followed by further steps at an initially fairly slow pace of 25 basis points per quarter. San Francisco Fed President John Williams, a leading dove, considers September to be a "very plausible" time for lift-off.