Finland’s goods trade likely contributed negatively to Q4 GDP growth

Finland's exports continued to be weak in December, declining 5%. The Q4 data, however, is expected to be worse than expectations. The foreign trade of goods is likely to have contributed negatively to the Q4 GDP growth. Finland's Customs stated that the country's value of goods exports dropped by 5.2% y/y in December, close to Nordea's projection of a fall of 6%. This was the fifth continuous drop.

The value of goods exports in Q4 is likely to have dropped by 3.2% q/q because of widespread weakness. The value of goods imports is likely to have grown 2.5% in Q4. Meanwhile, the trade balance narrowed in Q4 despite the lower crude oil prices.

The foreign trade is likely to have subtracted around 1 percentage point q/q and 2 percentage points y/y from the GDP growth. The domestic economy and statistical error are expected to again push the actual GDP growth number much closer to zero.