Flash September Euro area HICP inflation set to slow to 0.0% yoy

HICP inflation is expected to slow down from 0.1% yoy in August to 0.0% in September, with risks tilted to a negative printing (-0.1% yoy). The main culprits are lower fuel prices as a result of persistently weak Brent prices in euro terms. Regarding the other components, food is expected to make a small positive contribution to the headline, while the core is expected to remain stable at 0.9% yoy.

Among the core components, some pull back is expected in price inflation of non-energy industrial goods (down from 0.4% yoy to 0.2% yoy) and further increase in services price inflation (from 1.2% yoy to 1.3%). 

"Looking ahead, we expect euro area HICP inflation to average 0.2% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016, while the core metric should average 0.8% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016", says Societe Generale.