France Debt-to-GDP Ratio Seen Hitting Record 119.3% in 2026

France’s public debt is projected to climb to a record 119.3% of gross domestic product in 2026 as the government struggles to contain its budget deficit and restore confidence in the country’s finances.

The French finance ministry said Saturday that the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise further to 121.7% in 2027. That would mark a significant deterioration from 115.7% in 2025. France’s debt was still below 100% of GDP in 2019, according to government figures.

The latest forecasts were submitted to the High Council of Public Finances, an independent body responsible for assessing the revenue and spending assumptions underpinning the government’s budget plans.

France is also expected to finish 2026 with a budget deficit equal to 5.4% of GDP. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Thursday that he expected the deficit to remain well below 5.5%.

Attention is increasingly turning to the government’s plans for 2027. Lecornu has proposed a €54 billion ($62 billion) savings package aimed at preventing the deficit and public debt from rising further. However, securing parliamentary approval for spending cuts and other austerity measures could prove difficult given deep political divisions and voter concerns over the cost of living.

Financial markets are also showing growing unease over France’s fiscal outlook. The premium investors demand to hold French government bonds rather than comparable German debt widened to more than one percentage point on Friday, reaching that level for the first time since the eurozone debt crisis.

The widening France-Germany bond spread highlights mounting investor concerns over the sustainability of French public finances. With national elections scheduled for next year, the government faces pressure to balance deficit reduction with demands to protect household purchasing power and public services.