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Real money investors demanded highest yield in last night's French auction since last December, indicating that yields might be on their way to reverse course especially in France.
- French yields recorded at auction jumped almost 52 basis from last auction. 10 year bonds were sold at average yield of 0.98%.
Legendary bond investor Bill Gross just before this latest rout in bond markets indicated that Shorting German 10 year bond pose historic opportunity, whereas we preferred shorting French bonds as France's economy is way weaker than Germany.
With 10 year yields at this level opportunity is no less, should inflation rise in medium term horizon and real money's asking in French Auction indicates that such possibility remains large.
- Shorting 30 year bond against 2 and 5 year French bonds pose enormous potential as European Central bank's asset purchase program and negative deposit rate at -0.20% means shorter end of the curve would remain depressed for quite some time. In spite of this recent bond rout ECB is most likely to pursue its easing policy without any change for foreseeable future.
French 10 year -2 year spread stands at 1.11% whereas 30 year - 5year spread stands at 1.58%.
