The French National Statistical Institute (INSEE) business confidence index for the whole economy is expected to improve from 96 to 97 in April, while the manufacturing index should remain unchanged for a fifth consecutive month at 99.
Historically, the 97 reading for the whole economy indicator is consistent with a GDP growth rate of 0.35% qoq, which is consistent with the growth forecast of 0.4% qoq in Q1 15.
French business leaders still need to be convinced that all these positives can materialise into a solid recovery. The GDP forecast for 2015 is consistent with the INSEE business confidence index, improving gradually to 100 by mid-year.
"We thus expect continuing improvement over the coming months. Lower oil prices and a weaker euro should play out, while government measures including tax cuts (CICE) should also start to positively impact business confidence. Nevertheless, we do not consider these positives significant enough to boost the INSEE business survey above historical levels (100)" Says Societe Generale
