As expected, French industrial production bounced back in August following a disappointing July, mainly due to manufacturing output. The numbers for September is expected to continue to paint a solid picture with a 2.5% year-on-year increase.
"Our models suggest an increase in the energy component of around 2%", says Societe Generale.
Manufacturing, which is more heavily weighted and less volatile, is expected to be just as firm, aided by the high number of working days during the month. The overall result will be a 0.9% mom increase in industrial production in France and a firm 2.5% increase year on year. This would be equivalent to 0.6% qoq in Q3, consistent with the GDP forecast (0.4% qoq).


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