Fundamental Evaluation Series: 2-year yield spread vs. GBP/USD
The chart above shows, how the relationship between GBP/USD and 2-year yield divergence has unfolded since 2012. The chart clearly shows the close relationship between the yield spread and the exchange rate. Since June 2…
The chart above shows, how the relationship between GBP/USD and 2-year yield divergence has unfolded since 2012.
The chart clearly shows the close relationship between the yield spread and the exchange rate. Since June 2014, the yield spread declined from 0.5 percent area to -2.15 percent area by November 2018, and GBP/USD declined from 1.71 to 1.25 area.
In our December review, we noted that since the second week of November, the yield spread has reversed course, and rose from -2.15 percent to -1.9 percent, which suggested there might be a reversal in the exchange rate going ahead, should the spread continue its reversal.
As expected, the exchange rate has reversed course.
Although Brexit updates are causing major moves in GBP/USD, the chart clearly shows that yield spread remains a crucial underlying influencing factor.
In March, the spread has further narrowed to -1.69 percent, while GBP/USD has strengthened to 1.326.
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