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Noticeably, the lingering trade-combat threats, feeble global growth and lower Chinese commodity demand all mark headwinds for the three commodity currencies.
Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission IMM positioning data already displayed that investors have turned awfully pessimistic on the trios, posing an asymmetric balance of risk to positive news ahead.
The strong labour market data was able to provide some support for the Aussie this morning. However, overall the Australian currency still trades close to its annual lows against the US dollar. That is due to the fact that the market doubts that the Australian central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA) might normalize its monetary policy in the foreseeable future. The reason behind that is the trade war between China and the US, which might also affect the Australian economy due to its close ties with China.
While the Bank of Canada looks set to hike rates an additional two times over the coming year, recent central bank communication, alongside weaker Chinese growth, has challenged our call of one 25bp rate hike from both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
For now, we stick to our call but highlight risks are skewed towards unchanged policy rates in Australia and New Zealand over the next 12M. Fundamentally, CAD seems undervalued whereas AUD and NZD seem closer to fair value (versus USD). We leave our forecast profiles unchanged for all three currencies.
At the June monetary policy meeting, Norges Bank confirmed market expectations of a September rate hike, which, in our view, marks an important fundamental trigger for the next move lower in EURNOK.
In the very near term, the global environment of weaker growth and trade war fears alongside improved structural NOK liquidity and ‘summer trading’ should limit the short-term potential. The projection profile to 9.40 in 1M is upheld, 9.20 in 3M (9.30), 9.20 in 6M (9.30) and 9.10 in 12M (9.20). Courtesy: Danske
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is inching towards 63 levels (which is bullish) while articulating at (14:47 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
