- AUD/CAD has broken past major trendline resistance at 1.00 and has taken out 61.8% Fibo.
- We see scope for test of channel top at 1.0130. Breakout there could see further bullishness.
- Australia January Retail Sales arrived at +0.1% m/m (vs. expected +0.4% m/m). Also the antipodean remains under pressure from lower commodities prices.
- Aussie also little impacted saw little action after RBA kept rates unchanged as expected and the policy statement offered no hawkish or dovish surprise.
- Technical indicators are however, biased higher. RSI shows strength at 68 levels. Stochs are biased higher, momentum is bullish.
- That said, bearish divergence on Stochs raises need for caution.
- 61.8% Fib at 1.0052 is immediate support, break below will find next support at 5-DMA at 1.0013.
- Breach at 200-DMA support currently at 0.9873 invalidates bullish bias. Violation at 200-DMA could see major weakness.
- On the upside, breakout at channel top at 1.0130 could see test of 1.0181 (78.6% Fib retrace of 1.03458 to 0.9579 fall).
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