• AUDCAD is consolidating last Thursday’s drop, the pair is hovering around 61.8% Fib retrace of the Sept-Dec rally at 0.9539.
   
• RBA policy meet scheduled Tuesday which is the major risk event for the pair is likely to influence near term direction.
   
• The RBA statement (Tue) is seen as 50% likely to deliver a rate cut. Either way, a sharp response from the AUD is assured.
   
• Oil benchmarks faded a tepid bounce and fell back in the red this Monday, extending its retreat from fresh 2016 tops. However, the losses remained capped amid broad based USD weakness.
   
• Medium-term bias for the pair remains bearish, breaks below 61.8% Fib (0.9539) cloud see weakness resume.
   
• Downside finds next major support at 0.9434 (Nov 17th lows), decisive break below will see next support at 0.9361 (Oct 16th lows).
   
• Resistance on the upside aligns at 0.9595 (5-DMA), 0.9625 (trendline support turned resistance) and 0.9692 (200-DMA).