- AUD/JPY is extending consolidation after break below 50-DMA.
- Bias lower as long as pair holds below 5-DMA at 87.78. Break above could see minor upside till 20-DMA at 88.46.
- Upbeat Australia NAB business confidence data and hawkish comments from NAB's Chief Economist supported the Aussie, pushing the pair higher.
- NAB Business confidence rose by 2 points to stand at +7. The index of business conditions stayed at +14 in September, almost triple its long-run average of +5.
- Technical studies are bearish, RSI below 50. Stochs sharply lower, but at oversold levels, so some caution advised.
- Daily Ichi cloud is now strong support at 86.94, break below finds next major support at 200-DMA at 85.79.
- On the flipside, bearish invalidation only above 20-DMA at 88.45.
Support levels - 86.94 (cloud top), 86.55 (Sept 6 lows), 86, 85.79 (200-DMA)
Resistance levels - 87.60 (50-DMA), 87.78 (5-DMA), 88.45 (20-DMA)
Recommendation: Good to go short on rallies around 87.50/60, SL: 88.45, target 87/ 86.55/ 86.
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