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Please be noted that this is an attempt of correlating the daily price behavior with the weekly trend.
On daily terms, the current prices slide below DMAs after shooting star formation at 86.933 levels.
AUDJPY bears have resumed a bit late in the major downtrend (refer weekly charts).
Although the pair has recently broken above the channel resistances as shown in the weekly plotting, but with a shooting star formation at peaks of 86.067 levels, currently the bears have again snapped the recent gains at the same resistance levels.
Expect more dips as shooting star (weekly) evidences slumps that break support below 7SMA.
More importantly, 7DMA crosses below 21DMA which is the bearish crossover, thus, we reckon more slumps on cards.
To understand the intensity in this downtrend, leading oscillators on both daily and weekly charts, showing clear downward convergence with the prevailing slumps; we believe this as bears are getting momentum again. RSI is currently trending below 48 level that indicates the strength in declining trend.
In addition to that, stochastic curves boiling up intensified selling momentum even below 20 levels which is oversold territory but there is no clear bullish crossover, instead, we could still see %D crossover.
To substantiate, MACD is also bearish crossover that signals sentiments of selling to prolong further.
Thus, the major trend has been bias towards the south and watch out for every rally as a fresh shorting opportunity upon weekly shooting star formation and bearish DMA crossover on dailies.
Trade tips: Option Tunnel Spread
No wonder even if it hits 83.581 levels or conversely retest of 84.349 or even 84.864 on north on intraday terms, using this price band and favouring bearish bias, smart way to approach this pair is to deploy the option tunnel using ATM puts is structured as a binary version of a conventional put spread, i.e. long delta puts with higher strikes while writing the lower strikes for above mentioned targets on either side.
Therefore an In-The-Money Tunnell would be formed of an In-the-money -0.74 delta put below the current exchange rate less an Out-Of-The-Money put above the exchange rate. The delta of -0.54 on combined position with slightly negative theta is preferred on this execution.
