From last two weeks, Aussie dollar against Kiwi dollar has been gaining vigorously (about 5.64% while articulating) as both technical and fundamental indicators are still signalling buying sentiments.
But if you compare the ATM IVs with the monthly technical chart, the prevailing bullish swings may not be having the same momentum in rallies as we are seeing it right now.
ATM IVs of 1W expiries are at 10.54%, and 8.99% for 1M tenor.
Technically, we see a stiff resistance at 1.1290 and 1.1416 levels.
If IV is high, it means the market thinks the price has potential for large movement in either direction. Low IV implies the market thinks the price will not move much and so that it is beneficial for option writers.
So, the current rallies can very well be interpreted as momentary and resultant effects of RBNZ's surprising rate cut by 25bps in its monetary policy.
Hence, we recommend initiating longs in 1M ATM +0.51 delta call, 1 lot of (1%) OTM call and simultaneously short 1 lot of deep OTM call (2%) with comparatively shorter expiry in the ratio of 2:1.
The higher strike short calls because IV is reducing and it finances the purchase of the greater number of long calls (ATM calls are overpriced, so we chose 1% OTM calls as well) and the position is entered for reduced cost.
A seller wants IV to fall so the premium falls. You should also note short-dated options are less sensitive to IVs, so in this strategy we have short position suitable to both above conditions.


FxWirePro: GBP/AUD gaining momentum for a move towards 1.9150 level
FxWirePro- Major European Indices
AUDJPY Rejected at 113: Triple EMA Bearish Stack and Surging ADX Point to 110.50
FxWirePro: GBP/NZD steadies around 2.3060 , retains bid tone
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: AUD/USD eases as middle east peace progress ebbs
NZDJPY Bulls Capped: Triple Bearish EMA Stack Signals Downtrend Path Toward 90
Gold Stalls Below $4150 as Hot CPI Fuels Dollar Strength and Safe-Haven Bid Fades
FxWirePro: GBP/AUD maintains bullish bias with focus on 1.9100
FxWirePro: USD/CAD dips as Canadian dollar gains slightly after BoC rate decision
FxWirePro: USD/ZAR steadies as investors asses Middle East conflict and US CPI figures
FxWirePro- Woodies pivot (Major)
USD/CHF Retreats to Key Trend-Line Wall; Buy-Above-0.8000 Strategy Targets Sharp Rally to 0.8150
Sterling Surge: GBP/JPY Smashes Above 214 With Triple EMA Blessing; Bulls Eye 217
FxWirePro: GBP/NZD up trend gains momentum but hurdles ahead
EUR/USD Relief Rally Crashes Into 200/365 EMA Wall: Sell-on-Rise Near 1.1600 Targets 1.1435




