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FxWirePro: AUD/NZD finds strong support at 100-DMA (1.0729), weakness only on break below

  • AUD/NZD holds above 100-DMA which is strong support at 1.0729. We see weakness only on break below. 
     
  • The major is extending consolidation around 100-DMA, trades around 1.0767 at the time of writing.
     
  • Upside remains capped at 21-EMA at 1.0776, breakout could provide clear directional bias.
     
  • We expect the kiwi to weaken as we head into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) next policy meeting (due Wed).
     
  • The RBNZ is expected to keep cash rate steady at 1.75% with little change in the policy statements.
     
  • Majority of economists polled by Reuters also expect the central bank to remain unchanged on rates well into Q4 2019.
     
  • Technical indicators do not provide a clear directional bias. The pair finds stiff resistance in the 1.0774 - 1.0792 zone.
     
  • Breakout at resistance could see test of 1.093 (major trendline) ahead of 1.0983 (61.8% Fib).
     
  • On the flipside, rejection at resistance zone could see resumption of weakness.

Support levels - 1.0751 (5-DMA), 1.07, 1.0677 (23.6% Fib)

Resistance levels - 1.0776 (21-EMA), 1.0787 (20-DMA), 1.0794 (38.2% Fib)

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Spot Index was at 49.9649 (Neutral), while Hourly NZD Spot Index was at 24.7905 (Neutral) at 0645 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
 

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