• AUD/USD edged higher on Wednesday as news of U.S.-Japan trade deal boosted risk sentiment.
• Late Tuesday, President Trump confirmed a trade agreement with Japan featuring a reduced 15% tariff on goods entering the U.S., shortly after finalizing a similar deal with the Philippines that sets a 19% tariff rate.
• Markets found some relief after Trump said EU negotiators would arrive Wednesday for trade discussions, offering a glimmer of hope amid dwindling expectations of a U.S. deal and rising fears of European countermeasures.
• Domestically, the next major test will be the Q2 CPI data due at month-end, where a sticky core inflation reading particularly 0.8% or higher—could prompt the RBA to delay any near-term rate cut..
• Market consensus points to a 0.7% rise in core CPI for Q2, which would see the annual pace ease to 2.7%, down from 2.9%, and aligning more closely with the RBA’s 2–3% inflation target band.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6575(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6624(Higher BB )
• Support is seen at 0.6473(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6454(50%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.6540 with stop loss of 0.6480 and target price of 0.6600
