FxWirePro: AUD/ USD edges higher, but outlook is strongly bearish

• AUD/USD edged higher on Monday but gains were limited as investors awaited RBA minutes and jobs data to gauge the path of interest rates there.

• Australia’s economic calendar is busy this week, with the September jobs report due on Thursday. Economists expect employment to increase by 20,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.6%, its highest level in five years.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting on Tuesday. Having raised interest rates four times this year to a 15-year high of 4.6%, policymakers now face a key question: whether monetary tightening has done enough to bring inflation under control.

• Traders scaled back expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike at its November policy meeting after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in line with market expectations.

•Money markets are now betting the Australian central bank will likely keep rates on hold at its next meeting in early November.

• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7010 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7021 (SMA 20).

• Support is seen at 0.6930(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.685  (Lower BB).

Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.6930, with stop loss of 0.6700 and target price of 0.6860