FxWirePro: AUD/USD extends marginal gains, focus on RBA policy meet for impetus

Chart - Courtesy Trading View 

AUD/USD was trading 0.19% higher on the day at 0.7510 at around 04:50 GMT.

The pair is extending marginal gains as markets turn cautiously optimistic ahead of another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Sentiment remained sour earlier on Monday amid talk of yet more sanctions against Russia, AUD/USD hit session lows at 0.7482. 

On the data front, Australia ANZ Job Advertisements for March printed at 0.4%, missing forecasts at 1.6% and compared to a 8.4% in the previous month.

Looking ahead focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday. Analysts expect the RBA to reiterate its 'patient' stance.

“We expect the RBA to keep policy unchanged at the Apr meeting. However, the upgrade to our inflation forecasts, alongside an even tighter labour market, has led us to bring forward our RBA rate hike call,” says Lee Sue Ann, economist at UOB Group.

“We now see the cash rate target being lifted by 15 bps in Aug and then by 25 bps in Nov. This will see the cash rate target at 0.50% by the end of 2022,” adds Lee. 

Technical Analysis:

- GMMA indicator shows major and minor trend are bullish

- Price action is above major moving averages and daily cloud

- Momentum is bullish, volatility is high, Chikou span is biased higher

- A potential 'Golden Cross' (Bullish 50-DMA crossover on 200-DMA) seen

Major Support Levels: 0.7498 (200H MA), 0.7416 (21-EMA)

Major Resistance Levels: 0.7540 (Upper W BB), 0.7630 (110-month EMA)

Summary: AUD/USD grinds sideways. Bias tilted towards the upside. Scope for test of 110-month EMA at 0.7630.