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• The AUD/USD firmed on Thursday as Australian dollar was supported by upbeat economic data.
•Australia’s retail sales climbed 1.2% in June, accelerating from May’s 0.5% gain, sparking optimism about a potential recovery in consumer spending, ABS data showed.
• The increase beat expectations of a 0.4% rise, extending gains for a second month and recording the biggest monthly jump since March 2022.
• Despite upbeat spending data, interest rate expectations remain unchanged. Markets see a high likelihood of a 25bps RBA cut next month, with rates expected to reach a trough near 3.1% in early 2026.
• Meanwhile, Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the RBA, welcomed the latest inflation figures on Thursday, adding that the labour market continues to operate near full employment.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6534(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6589(July 28th highfib )
• Support is seen at 0.6411(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6374(June 23rd low).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.6450 with stop loss of 0.6380 and target price of 0.6520
