FxWirePro: AUD/USD largely muted amid widespread risk aversion, ignores upbeat China’s Caixin PMI

AUD/USD chart - Trading View 

Fundamental Overview:

AUD/USD was trading largely muted at 0.6126 at around 04:25 GMT, with session highs at 0.6157 and lows at 0.6108.

The pair remains pressure on widespread risk aversion, largely ignores upbeat China Caixin PMI

Data released early today showed China Caixin PMI in March jumped to 50.1 (vs 40.3 in Feb, poll 45.5), putting it back in expansion territory.

The pair ignores the upbeat prints of Aussie Building Permits for February. Aussie declines across the board even after RBA minutes cited no appetite for negative interest rates.

The latest RBA minutes of the emergency meeting on March 18 suggest the policymakers have no appetite for negative interest rates. 

The statement also indicated optimism among the RBA monetary policy members as they expect recovery once the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic gets over.

Sinking risk sentiment remains amid fears of worsening coronavirus pandemic to keep pressure on the pair.

Technical Analysis:

Technical studies show no respite from bear grip. 21-EMA is offering stiff resistance. Major trend is bearish and rejection at 21-EMA will turn near-term bias to bearish.

Decisive breakout at 21-EMA could see some upside continuation. Next major hurdle lies at 50% Fib at 0.6269.

Rejection at 21-EMA and resumption of downside will see drag till 88.6% Fib at 0.5495. Supports align at 0.6090 (110H EMA), 0.5991 (200H MA) and 0.5866 (23.6% Fib).

Data Watch:

US ADP Employment Change (Mar) - 12:15 GMT - Forecast: -154K, Prior: 183K

US Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar) - 13:45 GMT - Forecast: 49.2, Prior: 49.2

US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (Mar) - 14:00 GMT - Forecast: 45.4, Prior: 46.9

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) - 14:00 GMT - Forecast: 45, Prior: 50.1