FxWirePro: AUD/USD uptrend gains momentum but hurdles ahead

• AUD/USD firmed on Friday  as growing optimism over US-China trade deal  supported risk sensitive Australian dollar.

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Thursday that formal discussions with China are expected to take place soon, marking a potentially significant moment in the evolving relationship between the two global powers.

• On the data front, Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month in March 2025, slightly below the anticipated 0.4% increase, highlighting ongoing consumer caution despite recent monetary easing.

• Attention is now turning to the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day. The data will be closely analyzed for clues on US labor market strength and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

• Markets are fully priced for a quarter-point cut in the 4.10% RBA cash rate this month and see rates at 3.0% or lower by year-end.

•  Immediate resistance is located at 0.6450(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6557(23.6%fib).

•  Support is seen at 0.6368(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6321(April 16th low).

 Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.6390 with stop loss of 0.6320 and target price of 0.6480