- Dismal China trade data dents antipodeans, AUD/NZD trades in narrow range.
- Data released earlier today showed China October trade surplus widened less than expected.
- China trade surplus came-in at CNY 254.5 billion vs. CNY 275.0 billion (in USD terms $38.2B below forecasts at $39.5B).
- Exports printed at 6.1% y/y vs 7.0% expected and 9.0% last, while imports came-in at +15.9% y/y vs 17.5% expected and 19.5% last.
- The pair remains capped below 5-DMA at 1.1091, intraday bias bearish.
- RSI and stochs biased lower, MACD shows bearish crossover on signal line.
- Bearish divergence on RSI and Stochs keeps scope for downside, test of 50-DMA at 1.1032 on cards. Break below 50-DMA could see further weakness.
- Focus now on RBNZ, we expect the central bank to still be somewhat cautious.
Support levels - 1.1072 (23.6% Fib retracement of 1.0370 to 1.1290 rally), 1.1032 (50-DMA), 1.0938 (38.2% Fib)
Resistance levels - 1.1091 (5-DMA), 1.1108 (20-DMA), 1.12, 1.1290 (Oct 24 high)
Call update: Our previous call (http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Potential-Bullish-Cypher-on-AUD-NZD-raises-scope-for-downside-good-to-short-rallies-974849) has hit TP2.
Recommendation: Watch out for break below 50-DMA for further weakness.
FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Spot Index was at -52.0823 (Neutral), while Hourly NZD Spot Index was at -36.3663 (Neutral) at 0520 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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