TWD: Taiwanese economic growth may be upset by slow global trade growth. The government seeks to bolster investment to support the economy.

A new round of electricity price cut may place downward pressure on the headline inflation, consistent with our expectation that CPI inflation will remain soft at 0.1% for 2016. We reckon during Q2 USDTWD has upside traction as a result, we like to stay long via in mid month futures on hedging grounds.

HKD: The property transactions in February dropped most since Global Financial Crisis. Transactions in both volumes and values declined considerably by 70% YoY and 71.2% YoY respectively in February. 

But  we bet on the hedge HKD with a trust that HKD to appreciate by 10% against the U.S. dollar. As a result, our decision is to liquidate all open USD/HKD positions this Friday on February 26th 2016.

Capital inflow is driven in part by conversions of offshore yuan into the Hong Kong dollar, this would likely have an adverse impact on USD, so for next month or so we  see no trace of USDHKD's recovery, we remain short via buying 1M debit put spreads using ATM strikes in longs ( strikes at 7.7636/7.7743.

CNY: China’s exports in RMB terms fell sharply by 20.6% YoY (-25.4% in USD) in February, from 6.6% drop in January (-11.2% in USD). Imports in RMB terms dropped 8.0% y/y (-13.8% in USD) from 14.4% drop previously (-18.8% in USD). Trade surplus narrowed significantly to RMB209.5bn (USD32.59bn) in February. Although CNY gaining from last two months, the above mentioned narrow trade surplus and as a result of domestic consumption (import bills likely increase) which would likely cause upside traction in USDCNY during Q2, hence we like to remain long in mid month futures on hedging grounds.