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Brent-WTI spread is rising once more as clouds of Geopolitical uncertainty covers the Middle East and as U.S. production continues to rise. After reaching a bottom in late February around $3 per barrel, the Brent-WTI spread reached $5.15 per barrel in April, which was the highest level for the spread since January. It has been declining since December after reaching as high as $7 per barrel as U.S. exports increased, however, as it is becoming apparently clear the there is a supply/demand mismatch in North America, the spread has reversed course.
Since April, several more geopolitical events have taken place with regard to the Middle East; President Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) better known as Iran nuclear agreement, Trump also promised harshest of sanctions against Iran, missile attacks from Yemen on Saudi Arabia have increased by many folds, Israel struck Iranian military posts in Syria, and violence erupted across Gaza strip.
These events surrounding the Middle East has pushed Brent crude to the highest level since March 2015, which is currently at $7.3 per barrel. Unless the U.S. exports can keep up the pace with the production, which has increased by more than 2.3 million barrels per day since bottoming in July 2016, we expect the spread to rise. The current production stands at 10.7 million barrels per day. The bottlenecks (due to lack of transport) are also keeping the North American benchmark suppressed against Brent.
