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The bullion market prices surged as news of US airstrikes against Syria boosted demand for safe-haven assets, gold to five-month highs on Friday, while the silver futures for May delivery jumped 1% to $18.428 a troy ounce.
Initiated long in May’17 CME silver at a price of $16.88/oz on March 15, 2017.
We took the further boost in prices last week as an opportunity to exit our long recommendation at a profit of more than 5%.
The precious metal strengthened after the U.S. launched cruise missiles at an airbase in Syria, sparking concerns of an escalation in the Syrian civil war.
Similar to the long trade recommendation in gold we closed last week, our long silver recommendation received a swift boost following the Fed’s “dovish hike” with silver prices trending higher on continued US dollar weakness and lower US Treasury yields.
Buying a hedge tends to be costly, but not doing so may have devastating consequences when a crisis hits. Strategic hedging consists is systematically rolling a hedge, a very prudent attitude that may pay off if you can keep a lid on costs. This may be achieved by using options, looking for the right strike and expiries, or even contriving ways to hold an option without actually paying for it.
Of course, not buying a hedge is the easiest way of reducing costs, and this brings us to tactical hedging. We cannot predict the future or plan for it much, but tactical players believe it is worth trying. Crises do not always occur in a vacuum. One may look for early warning signs, and adjust the size or nature of a hedge according to economic circumstances. While rolling put options, investors may reduce costs by adjusting their strategy according to such indicators.
It may be difficult in practice to hedge out all the risks to which a large and diversified portfolio is exposed. Investors may wish to focus on the major sources of risk. Rather than leaving entire parts of the portfolio unattended for, they may rely on bigger and more liquid markets as a hedge for smaller risks. The last part of this report investigates such macro hedges and various technical ways to shape a portfolio before the next bear market.
