2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
Japan Declines Comment on BOJ’s Absence From Global Support Statement for Fed Chair Powell. Source: Asturio Cantabrio, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
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Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell Over Headquarters Renovation 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
BoC arrives Wednesday at 10amET along with the Monetary Policy Report that includes refreshed forecasts. Governor Poloz and SDG Wilkins will host a press conference at 11:30amET.
The Canadian monetary policy announcement will be more about jawboning uncertainties within a base case policy framework that is in no rush to change. Having said this, the broad tone of the communications is likely to walk more on the cautiously optimistic side of the equation in such fashion as to remain faithful toward the Governor’s rebound narrative. If so, then at a minimum, the communications could be the further unwinding of near-term curve inversion.
NAFTA bloc vols and risk-reversals can jump, if we are correct that a standoff between the Trump administration and the Democrat-controlled House around the issue of USMCA ratification is higher odds than the market gives it credit for. BoC (Bank of Canada) on the other corner, is a major event for this week.
Hence, the CAD risk premia flags that owning EURCAD and EURMXN risk-reversals are good value hedges against a NAFTA accident.
We also continue to be positioned short CAD via a long-held CAD put/CHF call vs. USD put/CHF call option spread.
Ever since the low-likelihood threat of a US government shutdown became reality earlier in the year, our macro team has worried about another President Trump vs. Democratic House confrontation upending what was considered to be routine Congressional ratification of 2018's USMCA trade agreement.
We emphasized in the recent past that the administration is minded to complete the process by August, but this compressed timeline could put the President on a collision course with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sooner rather than later.
Risks are that Trump actually withdraws from NAFTA 1.0 as a negotiating tactic in order to force the issue with the House – an option he and ranking members have been vocal about – leading to punitive sell-offs in CAD and MXN. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly CAD spot index is flashing at 94 levels (which is bullish), hourly USD spot index was at 48 (bullish) while articulating at (10:41 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
