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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4- hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2015
Kijun-Sen- $2030.28
Gold recovered more than $25 after hitting a multi-week low. Philly fed manufacturing declined to -10.6 in Jan, compared to a forecast of -7.0. Building permits rose to 1.50 M in Dec 1.9% higher than the previous month. Housing starts came in at a 1.46 million annual rate in Dec, which declined from the previous month's 1.53 million. It hit a high of $2030.21 and is currently trading around $2010.24.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan increased to 97.40% from 95.90% a week ago.
US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 103/102.40 The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Weak (Positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (Bearish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2000, a break below targets of $1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2035 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2050/$2060.
It is good to buy on dips around 2005-06 with SL around $1998 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver has formed a triple bottom around $22.40 and showed a minor pullback. The precious metal trades below 21 and 55- EMA and long-term MA (200- MA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break above $23 confirms minor bullishness. A jump to $23.38/$24 is possible. It is facing significant support around $22.40. Any close below targets $21.85/$21.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices gained sharply after EIS crude inventories. US crude inventories declined by -2.5 million bbls to 429.90 million bbls in the week ended Jan 12th, 2024. Markets eye geopolitical tension in the Middle East for further movement.
Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $70/$68
Economic calendar
Canada retail sales (1:30 pm GMT)
Prelim UoM consumer sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)
Existing Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)
