FxWirePro- Commodity Weekly update

Gold -

Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $2044.32

Kijun-Sen- $2051.76

Gold pared some of its gains after US Non-farm payroll data. The US economy has added 216000 jobs in Dec, above expectations of 168K. Unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% vs. Estimate of 3.8%. It hit a low of $2024 and is currently trading around $20.  

  According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in  Jan increased to 95.3% from 82.40% a week ago.

Economic calendar -

Jan  11th, 2024, US CPI m/m    (1:30 pm GMT)

Jan 12th, 2024, US Core PPI m/m  (1:30 pm GMT)

                               UK GDP m/m                                                                           

  US dollar index-   Bullish. Minor support around 100.70/100. The near-term resistance is 103/104.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)

  US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $2030, a break below targets of $2020/ $2000/$1970. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2050 and a breach above will take it to the next level of$2060/$2070/ $2090/$2100/$2150.

 It is good to buy on dips around $2020 with SL around $2000 for TP of $2150.

Silver-

Silver declined after a minor pullback on board-based US dollar buying. US ISM services PMI came at 50.6 in Dec, below the estimate of 52.50. The precious metal is trading below 21 and 55-day EMA and long-term MA (200-day MA).  Any close below $22.65 confirms further bearishness. A dip to $21.88/$21.50. It is facing significant resistance at $23.25. Any breach above $23.25 confirms minor bullishness, a jump to $23.60/$24.10/$24.60/$25/$26.  

Crude oil-  

WTI crude oil prices showed a minor decline despite Middle East tension. Logistics and shipping companies diverted routes from the Red Sea.

 Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $71/$68.